Between FUD and powder keg: Quo vadis, Bitcoin?

While Bitcoin is searching for its bottom, the community is already striving for new heights. Meanwhile, old acquaintances are rehashing classic FUD, like the Bitcoin ban. Opinion Echo.

Actually, the bitcoin price should be much higher. If you take the sheer amount of over-bullish news from the last week as a template, it is almost surprising that the best cryptocurrency of all time is not already above 60,000 US dollars.

Last Wednesday, 24 March, for example, Fidelity had a BTC ETF proposition on the line. Fidelity is no small fish, but with 4.9 trillion US dollars the third largest asset manager of Bitcoin Code in the world. For some time now, the asset manager has been following the Bitcoin standard and has launched its own crypto division, Fidelity Digital Assets. Naturally, the Bitcoin community acknowledged the bull call from Pomp with a five-digit number of likes:

Fidelity has filed for a Bitcoin ETF
– Pomp 🌪 (@APompliano) March 24, 2021

In addition, there is growing evidence of state actors keeping their toes in the wild Bitcoin stream with small reserves, you can also call them YOLO positions. One example is the Singaporean sovereign wealth fund Temasek, which, according to hedge fund manager Raoul Pal, is already invested in BTC. This means that not only the largest companies in the world, but even state actors would now be participants in the Bitcoin Game.

Yesterday’s FUD

Billionaire and investment legend Ray Dalio is less bullish. The hedge fund Bridgewater Associates fears a sharp tightening of the regulatory thumbscrew around Hodler hands, with an eye on the 1930s US gold ban. In the wake of the economic crisis, President Franklin D. Roosevelt restricted the ownership of gold and certificates to the equivalent of 100 US dollars in order to provide the country’s central bank with some buffer again. Something similar is conceivable with Bitcoin, says Dalio.

They don’t want other funds operating or competing because things could get out of control. So I think it’s very likely that [Bitcoin] will be banned in certain circumstances, just as gold has been banned.
Ray Dalio

But the historical analogy is not really comparable. After all, the US dollar was backed by the precious metal back then. Rather, a ban on private ownership was intended to bring gold reserves under the wing of the central bank so that it could further expand the money supply.
Johns Hopkins professor: Bitcoin is not worth a penny

Steve Hanke, an old acquaintance from the ranks of bitcoin FUDsters, is similarly bearish. The lecturer at Johns Hopkins University sees the long-term value of BTC at zero.

Bitcoin’s price growth is therefore only based on speculation. But the question is what the fundamental value of Bitcoin is – it is zero. In contrast, fiat money has a fundamental value because interest is paid on it. Bitcoin is not interest-bearing.
Prof. Steve Hanke

First of all, you have to clear this up

First, there is no such thing as intrinsic value at all. Value is a man-made assessment that can be quantified in price. The „value“ of an asset is different for every market participant; the sum of these individual considerations is reflected in the price.

The fluctuation in the direction of interest rates is also factually wrong. After all, one can earn interest with Bitcoin long ago. According to Hanke’s (inadequate) definition of money, Bitcoin would have long been money. Bitcoiners also appreciate the „fundamental“ properties – to use this terminology here. After all, Hodler does not use Bitcoin for daily payments, but to store their life savings in an inflation-proof digital gold. Civil rights groups like the Feminist Coalition in Nigeria can also be happy to have a censorship-resistant alternative to the state-controlled currency system in BTC.

Le prix du bitcoin a prolongé sa hausse vers 49 700 dollars avant de corriger à la baisse par rapport au dollar américain. La CTB a chuté de plus de 2 000 dollars, mais elle devrait rester stable au-dessus de 45 000 dollars.

• Bitcoin a entamé une forte correction à la baisse après avoir atteint un nouveau record historique à près de 49 700 dollars.
• Le prix se négocie au-dessus du support de 46 000 dollars, mais il est inférieur à la moyenne mobile simple de 100 heures.
• Il y a une ligne de tendance haussière clé qui se forme avec un support proche de 46 000 $ sur le graphique horaire de la paire BTC/USD (données fournies par Kraken).
• La paire est susceptible de rebondir tant qu’elle se négocie au-dessus de 46 000 $ et 45 000 $.

Le prix du bitcoin corrige ses gains

Le prix du bitcoin a connu une hausse au-dessus de 49 200 dollars. La CTB a même atteint un nouveau record de près de 49 700 dollars avant de faire face à un fort intérêt de vente.

Le prix a fortement baissé en dessous des niveaux de 48 000 et 47 000 dollars. Bitcoin s’est négocié en dessous d’un important triangle de contraction avec un support proche de 47 600 $ sur le graphique horaire. Il y a également eu une cassure sous le niveau de support de 46 800 $ et la moyenne mobile simple de 100 heures.

Le prix a atteint un sommet sous le dernier bas de la courbe, à 46 326 $. Cependant, il est resté stable au-dessus du niveau d’extension de 1,236 Fib du mouvement à la hausse de 46 326 $ à 49 708 $.

Il y a également une ligne de tendance haussière clé qui se forme avec un support proche de 46.000$ sur le graphique horaire de la paire BTC/USD. S’il y a une rupture à la baisse en dessous du support de la ligne de tendance, le prix pourrait baisser vers le support de 45 000 $. Le prochain support majeur est proche du niveau de 44 250 $. Il est proche du niveau d’extension de 1,618 Fib du mouvement à la hausse de 46 326 $ à 49 708 $.

Nouvelle augmentation de la CTB?

Si le bitcoin reste au-dessus du support de la ligne de tendance, il pourrait commencer une nouvelle augmentation au-dessus de 46 800 $. La première résistance clé est proche du niveau de 47 000 $ et de la moyenne mobile simple de 100 heures.

Une rupture réussie au-dessus du niveau de résistance de 47 000 $ et une clôture au-dessus de la moyenne mobile simple de 100 heures pourrait déclencher une nouvelle hausse. La résistance clé suivante se situe près du niveau de 48 000 $.

Indicateurs techniques:

MACD horaire – La MACD gagne lentement du terrain dans la zone baissière.

RSI horaire (indice de force relative) – Le RSI de la CTB/USD est maintenant en dessous du niveau 50.

Principaux niveaux de soutien – 46 000 $, suivi de 45 000 $.

Principaux niveaux de résistance – 47 000 $, 47 400 $ et 48 000 $.

Holländsk Bitcoin-utbyte drar centralbanken till domstol över plånboks KYC-regel

En holländsk Bitcoin-börs har vidtagit rättsliga åtgärder mot centralbanken på grund av sin kontroversiella lag för verifiering av kryptoplånbok.

Holländska Bitcoin (BTC) utbytesplattform Bitonic har inlämnat ett preliminärt föreläggande vid en Bitcoin Code domstol i Rotterdam som begär upphävande av en plånbokskontrollregel antagen av centralbanken.

Tillbaka i november 2019 garanterade De Nederlandsche Bank eller DNB kryptobörser att deras användare följer stränga Know Your Customer-protokoll. Dessa regler inkluderade verifieringssteg för uttagsplånböcker, vilket Bitonic kallade en olägenhet.

Vid den tiden hade Bitonic endast en av tre licenser som beviljats ​​av DNB av 38 ansökningar till centralbankerna genom kryptobörser. I själva verket skickade 25 av 38 sökande också ett gemensamt brev till DNB och bad om större klarhet om behovet av sådana stränga efterlevnadsprotokoll.

Enligt företagets tillkännagivande har DNB enligt uppgift misslyckats med att ta itu med de farhågor som Bitonic tog upp om den kontroversiella KYC-regeln. Utbytet avslöjade också att ett oberoende efterlevnadsföretag nyligen gav expertråd i ärendet om att centralbankens handlingar saknade någon juridisk merit.

För Bitonic bryter införandet av svepande protokoll för verifiering av befintliga kunders integritetslagar

„Vi anser att det är av avgörande betydelse att en domare överväger DNB: s ståndpunkt så att det blir klart om kraven är legitima,“ tillade företaget i sitt tillkännagivande.

Kommentar till målet med stämningen, Bitonic tillkännagivande lyder:

”Vårt mål är att snabbt kunna stoppa den omfattande behandling av personuppgifter som ålagts oss. Vi vill återvända till den situation där vi själva avgör, på riskbaserad basis, om vi ber kunden att bevisa sin hantering av plånboken. ”

En talesman för Bitonic berättade för Cointelegraph att företaget beklagar att man tvingas söka prövning vid domstolarna men att åtgärden var nödvändig med tanke på DNB: s återhållsamhet att föra en dialog om frågorna. Bitonic-representanten avslöjade också att andra börser har uttryckt stöd för rättsliga åtgärder:

„Vi vet inte om liknande förfaranden förbereds av andra parter, men vi litar på att domstolen kommer att erkänna den bredare relevansen för inte bara kryptoindustrin utan även dess kunder.“

Som tidigare rapporterats av Cointelegraph orsakar de ytterligare KYC-kraven missnöje bland vissa kryptohandlare i landet. Bitstamp har fått viss kritik över börsens upplevda brist på pushback mot DNB: s politik.

Russische Rechtsexperten haben die Kryptogesetze des Landes kritisiert und darauf hingewiesen, dass die Gerichte des Landes in der Vergangenheit Probleme mit Krypto hatten – und darauf hingewiesen, dass die jüngste Gesetzgebung möglicherweise wenig dazu beigetragen hat, den rechtlichen Nebel bei der Überwachung von Token zu beseitigen.

Laut einem Bericht des Medienunternehmens RBC wurden kürzlich erlassene russische Gesetze zum rechtlichen und steuerlichen Status von Kryptoassets entwickelt, um Gerichte vor einem juristischen Sumpf zu bewahren, in dem Richter den Preis von Kryptoassets von Einzelpersonen durch Berechnung des Werts von Kryptoassets geschätzt haben die Flash-Laufwerkgeräte, auf denen sie gespeichert waren.

Zwei Anwälte, die mit den Medien sprechen, behaupten jedoch, dass die neuen Regeln der Justiz nicht sehr geholfen haben – wenn überhaupt

Angelika Matushkina, eine Rechtsexpertin an der Moscow Digital School , warnte, dass Händler, die Fiat aus dem Verkauf ihrer Fonds erhalten, den Prozess im Umgang mit Banken immer noch als „problematisch“ empfinden .

Banken scheinen verwirrt darüber zu sein, wie sie mit Krypto umgehen sollen, und viele versuchen, Probleme der Behörden zu vermeiden – indem sie drakonisch klingende Maßnahmen ergreifen.

Matushkina behauptete, dass Transaktionen mit Krypto „blockiert“ und Konten „eingefroren“ werden können

Sie riet den Händlern, vorbeugende Treffen mit ihren Bankmanagern zu vereinbaren, um die Anforderungen und Dokumente zu besprechen, die zur Registrierung der Einnahmen aus Kryptoverkäufen erforderlich sind, um die neuen Steuervorschriften für die Deklaration von Kryptofonds einzuhalten. Andernfalls könnten Händler „auf Probleme des [aufsichtsrechtlichen] Federal Financial Monitoring Service (Rosfinmonitoring) oder der Bank-Compliance-Teams stoßen.

Dieselbe Mediensendung zitiert Maria Agranovskaya, geschäftsführende Gesellschafterin und Fintech-Anwältin bei der russischen Rechtsberaterin GRAD , mit der Begründung , dass die neuen Gesetze „etwas enttäuschend“ seien, da sie ursprünglich „eine Grundlage für die legitimen Aktivitäten von alle Marktteilnehmer, um die unterschiedliche Praxis der Gerichte in Ordnung zu bringen und den Banken die Arbeit mit Kryptoprojekten zu ermöglichen “- etwas, was Moskau in den Augen vieler Anwälte bisher nicht getan hat.

El informe de la investigación dice que hay una posibilidad de corrección de la BTC si el precio de Bitcoin no supera los 40.000 dólares.

Si Bitcoin no supera los 40.000 dólares, puede que se corrija, según los estrategas de JPMorgan, entre ellos Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. El informe también subrayó la importancia de la Fundación Bitcoin de Grayscale para el futuro de la mayor criptografía del mundo.

Panigirtzoglou dijo que los operadores que siguen la tendencia pueden provocar una caída en el precio de la BTC si Bitcoin Pro no recupera el nivel de precios de 40.000 dólares. Añadió que la principal moneda digital estaba en una posición similar en noviembre del año pasado con 20.000 dólares como barrera de precios, pero el dinero institucional en diciembre ayudó a Bitcoin a saltar por encima del nivel de 20.000 dólares.

„La reciente acción de precios muestra que los operadores que siguen la tendencia podrían propagar la corrección de la semana pasada y las señales de impulso decaerán naturalmente desde aquí hasta finales de marzo si el precio de Bitcoin no supera los 40.000 dólares“, dijeron los estrategas en el informe.

El dinero institucional y el precio de Bitcoin

Los estrategas de JPMorgan han subrayado la importancia de las entradas de dinero institucional para el futuro de Bitcoin. En el último informe, dijeron que las entradas en el BTC Trust de Grayscale proporcionarán pistas sobre las perspectivas de la cripto-moneda.

„El patrón de demanda de los futuros de Bitcoin y el Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, el mayor fondo de criptografía comercializado, proporcionará pistas sobre el panorama. El flujo hacia el Grayscale Bitcoin Trust probablemente tendría que mantener su ritmo de 100 millones de dólares diarios durante los próximos días y semanas para que se produzca tal ruptura“, afirma la nota oficial.

Después de un repunte masivo durante los primeros 10 días de 2021, Bitcoin ha visto la consolidación de los precios durante los últimos días, ya que el precio se mantuvo entre 35.000 y 38.000 dólares. La caída de la última semana eliminó casi 200.000 millones de dólares del mercado de criptodólares, ya que la capitalización total del mercado de monedas digitales cayó de 1,1 billones de dólares a tan sólo 890.000 millones de dólares. El mercado se ha recuperado desde entonces, ya que la capitalización total del mercado está ahora alrededor de 1 billón de dólares. Según una compañía de análisis de criptodivisas, Skew, la volatilidad del BTC cayó significativamente la semana pasada debido a las operaciones dentro de un rango.

O Protocolo 0x se prepara para lançar sua „Atualização Mais Poderosa“ Ainda

• O V4 será a versão 0x mais „poderosa“ do protocolo até agora.
• Economia maciça de gás para a agregação de DEX.
• ZRX cai para $0,43 e ainda está muito abaixo de sua alta de 2020.

O Trust Project é um consórcio internacional de organizações de notícias construindo padrões de transparência.

O protocolo de intercâmbio descentralizado 0x está se preparando para uma grande atualização no que se refere à „versão de protocolo mais poderosa já lançada“, v4.

Na verdadeira moda DeFi, a equipe não apenas arado à frente com Bitcoin Trader a atualização, mas o colocou à votação da governança. Entre 16 e 23 de janeiro, os portadores de fichas ZRX poderão votar.

A 0x Labs começou a experimentar uma nova arquitetura de contratos inteligentes para seus contratos inteligentes públicos, que pretende integrar na nova versão. O projeto melhorado facilitará a agregação do DEX, permitindo a obtenção da melhor liquidez em uma série de trocas.

Em julho de 2020, a equipe lançou seu próprio DEX chamado Matcha, que melhorou as plataformas existentes na época e proporcionou a tão necessária agregação de liquidez.

Melhorias em três áreas principais

O Protocolo 0x v4 apresentará grandes melhorias em três áreas distintas, acrescentou o post do blog. A mais importante é a eficiência do gás. Tem havido muito foco na otimização do consumo de gás de contratos inteligentes enquanto se consegue uma melhoria líquida sem sacrificar as características;

„Em comparação à v3, 0x V4 melhora os custos do gás RFQ em quase 70% (nossas simulações registraram 105k gás VS 320k na v3) e o custo do gás em carteira de pedidos aberta em 10%“.

O post acrescentou que é mais barato comercializar tanto no Uniswap quanto no SushiSwap usando 0x v4, graças a um roteador Uniswap otimizado. Os preços da gasolina estão subindo novamente e a média está de volta acima de $10 de acordo com BitInfoCharts.

Tráfego Uniswap

A funcionalidade DeFi também foi melhorada na nova versão que introduz o conceito de „Transformadores“. Estes são módulos personalizáveis capazes de executar operações atômicas sobre os ativos negociados, tais como o embrulho/desembrulho de fichas, ou depósitos/retiradas de posições do pool de liquidez.

A automação do processo de atualização do protocolo foi incluída juntamente com ‚plug and play liquidity‘.

„O V4 permite que os pools de liquidez personalizados na cadeia sejam conectados através de uma interface padrão e facilmente agregados a todas as outras fontes de liquidez“.

É muito improvável que haja muitos votos contra esta atualização.

Perspectivas de preços ZRX

O símbolo nativo do protocolo, ZRX, não está tendo um desempenho muito bom hoje, tendo largado 6% desde o preço de abertura de $0,463 em 7 de janeiro. A ZRX está atualmente sendo negociada a $0,43 de acordo com a Coingecko.

A ZRX ainda está muito abaixo de sua alta de US$ 0,73 no final de agosto de 2020 e parece estar a anos-luz de seu máximo histórico de US$ 2,50 em janeiro de 2018.

While the price of Bitcoin has just crossed a new all-time high, the predictions of its next record are all the crazier.

Bitcoin at $100,000? Bitcoin at $500,000? Anything seems possible.

But what do we expect from Bitcoin in 2021? What improvements are planned? Will the market remain optimistic? How will regulators react to its growing adoption?

Bitcoin is technical!

Bitcoin is first and foremost a computer protocol, and anyone can propose to change its rules. These Bitcoin Code review Improvment Proposals are reviewed, integrated into the source code and implemented if there is a consensus.

Bitcoin BTC

Bitcoin is not perfect, far from it. Future network improvements are eagerly awaited. It is a question of strengthening – again and again – its scalability, but also its confidentiality.

Schnorr’s signatures

A Bitcoin transaction is a message, signed using the private key of its sender. The Schnorr authentication protocol is a new signature scheme for Bitcoin. Lighter, more flexible, it is also more confidential. At the moment, Bitcoin uses Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECDSA).

Schnorr’s signatures provide the same level of security, but with additional benefits. They are lighter, and can also be easily aggregated. Transaction sizes are expected to decrease by 30-75%.

Initially proposed in 2015 by Pieter Wuille, this enhancement will be integrated into Bitcoin Core version 0.21 under the code name BIP 340. Its activation will take effect during a soft fork, i.e. a change in the consensus rules of the Bitcoin protocol – these new rules will remain compatible with the previous ones.

Taproot

Taproot is a much-anticipated feature, as it is the one that will make Bitcoin transactions more confidential.

The idea is to combine the signature aggregation proposed by Schnorr’s scheme with a new data structure, called MAST, to offend the contents of a Bitcoin script. Multi-signature transactions and the content of their conditions will thus be similar to classic transactions, in the eyes of an outside observer.

Once Schnorr’s signatures are implemented, Bitcoin’s scripting language will need to be able to use their new features. The future update of this language is called Tapscript. and allows the verification of these cryptographic signatures.

The three enhancements (BIP 340, BIP 341 and BIP 342) represent 700 lines of code. This major update of Bitcoin, prepared by more than 30 experienced developers, is certainly the most expected technical event in 2021.

2021: a bull year for Bitcoin?

Beyond technology, the many Bitcoin users are also there to speculate and make money.
I’m here for the tech, you know

In the year 2020, the world of traditional finance has become particularly interested in BTC. Several listed companies have injected part of their capital into digital gold. For these market players, Bitcoin has more the function of a financial asset than a currency.

Bitcoin treasuries

All HODLer (bitcoin owner) is obviously hoping for a bull market in 2021 comparable to that of 2017. And with good reason: if history repeats itself, the price of BTC should once again experience exponential growth.

In terms of technical analysis, there are indeed many very positive indicators. Bitcoin has just passed its historical resistance level of $20,000, an extremely powerful bullish signal. After each crossing of its ATH, the price of BTC then soared.

Buy the rumor, sell the news

Watch out! No asset goes up in a straight line to the Moon. And on Bitcoin, the more bullish the market is, the steeper the corrections that mark the evolution of its price. For example, during the crazy bull run of 2017, the price of BTC counted several corrections of more than 25%.

Bitcoin weekly 2014-2020

The price of bitcoin on a weekly basis since 2014. Blue lines: the two historical resistances (ATH). Red arrows: major corrections during the last bull run (2017).

We can therefore expect a lot of volatility in 2021. Those who think they are missing the train can rest assured: there will be plenty of opportunities to buy the lows. The weekly 20-period moving average for Bitcoin is a good indicator of when to buy BTC in a bull market. In the past, its price has always bounced back after touching it.